Where are the Liberal Democrats?

Right now? Birmingham. Their popularity is the same as it was in 1996, they're in government and have achieved... what? It is unlikely that Nick Clegg will be able to fulfil his promise of double the number of seats the Liberal Democrats have by 2015, unlike Paddy Ashdown's achievement of doubling the number of Lib Dem seats in 1997, Nick Clegg will not be able to achieve the same feat with a drop of 1% in polls, let alone the halving of support. Not just because of broken promises, the poor state of the economy and general unpopularity but because his party is now in Government and must defend it's record.

Nick Clegg is still criticising government decisions as evil, extremist and horrible... but he must know that he is largely responsible for those measures. The Conservatives will never have been able to push through most of what they have gotten through without the Lib Dem coalition, a minority Conservative government would have been far weaker and have been forced to make deals with the other parties.

There is no doubt that the Liberal Democrats are going to have to do a great deal of work in order to reclaim the trust of their former supporters. I, an individual who considers himself a leftist, already found Nick Clegg hard to trust after his attempts to change certain Lib Dem policies e.g. tuition fees. When Nick Clegg mentions he promises X, Y or Z just gives the impression that it isn't going to happen. I very much doubt that the Liberal democrats will be able to stop the conservatives dropping the 50p tax rate, there are enough Lib Dem MPs who agree with dropping the 50p tax rate for the Conservatives to get it pushed through with, or without the LDs help.

The problem the Liberal Democrats face is the fear of the polls, they fear triggering an election as they know that they're going to suffer; so the Conservatives are able to take advantage of this. If the Liberal Democrats leave the government it will not be as (if at all) damaging for the Conservatives as the damage the Liberal Democrats will suffer. But would it? The Liberals have, thus far, failed to use any of the small windows of opportunity have been given to them.

I disagree with The Observers political editorial today which seems to be claiming that the Liberal Democrat position isn't that bad after all, they've survived several by-elections and in Farron's seat people like their local MP... it is a little unfortunate that the Observer's political editor feels that he should use opinions of random people in Liberal Democrat safe seats to portray his point. He hasn't looked at any polls, which have the Liberal democrats and their leader in the same position they were in February... it's only ICM that has the Liberal democrats in the teens, YouGov have had them in single figures for much of the last year.

I suspect that were there a general election in three months time that the Liberal Democrats would probably return a 17-18% in the polls... but this would put them back in the position they held in 1992 setting them back by 20 years. Nick Clegg is not a strong card for the party and it is hard for him to look like the "honest" route.

Interestingly in today's article in the Observer today was this quote;

"I think Nick Clegg sold out and with the Tories in power people are suffering," says Johnson. "My dad is on disability benefits for multiple sclerosis, but what he can claim now is a lot less and it makes it very difficult."But I understand it is a difficult time and Tim Farron is excellent, he listens to people. I don't really know who I would vote for in a general election. I suppose if Farron was there, I would probably vote for him."

I would not say that this quote is encouraging for the Liberal Democrats, the fact is the man like the MP not the Liberal Democrats as a whole and seems to have accepted the Tory line that the cuts are necessary.

Unfortunately The Observers editorial today is typical of much of the press... presenting one viewpoint and not even attempting to balance out the argument.

Admittedly the Liberal Democrats are not in the same position they were in last winter, this is not too heartening for them but is a start. They can fix their position, but it will not be easy; particularly because they are a small party fighting against two behemoths with much more experience. They also have the problem that they didn't begin the coalition haggling process from the correct position, the conservatives went for the most right position and have gotten much of it because the Liberal democrats started from a position to the right of their own too early talking about how compromise is important.

There is only one thing that I am certain of, which is that I am disappointed by every major group on the left. The unions are hell-bent on repeating the 80s with strike action etc. despite knowing full well that strike action is unpopular and was completely unsuccessful in the 80s, the Liberal Democrats are hugely in denial and Labour is fighting a battle within itself. We're all fighting each other. It is important that we all fall under one banner, I have allied myself with Labour because it is the most united... despite it's major divisions.

All too often we fall into bitter arguments with name calling, generalisations and genuine prejudice. There are many things I disagree with that the last Labour government did, but I'm still Labour because I am part of the left-wing and understand that the reason that Labour has moved towards the right is because left-wingers keep leaving the party meaning that there are fewer of us to make the arguments. There is also the very good point that the Liberal Democrats have also moved towards the right and the Greens are more like a splinter group.

It is time that those of us on the left realise that the Conservatives are winning because we argue and divide ourselves. When the SDP left Labour and joined the Liberals it meant that the Conservatives would remain in power for 18 years last time around, the Liberal Democrats must not allow the Conservatives to do the same again.