Jeremy Corbyn is unelectable. There I said it. What the mainstream media (and many in the Labour Party) have been saying since last summer. They’re right, he can’t win a majority in the next general election.
But… this isn't an attack on Corbyn: the same will hold true for any other Labour leader who would unseat him. The reason? Electoral Maths.
Labour lost all but one of their seats in Scotland, and badly; many of those seats were considered “safe” before 2015. We’re not talking a small number either… Labour lost 40 seats in Scotland: 15 percent of the seats they held in 2010. Under FPTP this seriously screws the electoral mathematics, even though in 2015 Labour actually increased their national (UK wide) popular vote share by 1.5% they lost 10% of their share in the commons.
So what does this mean for 2020? Well, ignoring possible boundary changes that are due, it means on a uniform swing Labour will need to achieve 42% of the popular vote to win even a small majority in the commons. To put that into context the historic 1997 election victory which has a nearly 9 point swing won 43% of the popular vote.
Labour will need to achieve an unprecedented 12 point swing to win a majority in 2020.
Labour lost all but one of their seats in Scotland, and badly; many of those seats were considered “safe” before 2015. We’re not talking a small number either… Labour lost 40 seats in Scotland: 15 percent of the seats they held in 2010. Under FPTP this seriously screws the electoral mathematics, even though in 2015 Labour actually increased their national (UK wide) popular vote share by 1.5% they lost 10% of their share in the commons.
So what does this mean for 2020? Well, ignoring possible boundary changes that are due, it means on a uniform swing Labour will need to achieve 42% of the popular vote to win even a small majority in the commons. To put that into context the historic 1997 election victory which has a nearly 9 point swing won 43% of the popular vote.
Labour will need to achieve an unprecedented 12 point swing to win a majority in 2020.
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| A highly improbably scenario in 2020: Source http://www.ukpollingreport.co.uk/advanced-swingometer-map |
These are unprecedented times for Labour and it has succumbed to the perils of FPTP. The effect of our electoral system has also had a far more profound effect on the party in the last year than electoral maths; the crisis of identity.
Labour are the centre-left party, but their existence has been one of conflict ever since the New Labour project began, the strategic move to move somewhat to the right and then start pulling to the left as Labour wins the argument has backfired: it never stopped moving rightwards. The result was a gap that formed on the left of British politics where there was little to no representation; the Liberal Democrats thrived on this for years (until their disastrous coalition with the Conservatives in 2010) and it is what allowed the SNP to absolutely destroy Labour in 2015. Now, of course, Labour has an internal crisis as centrists, centre-leftists and somewhat more hard left activists bicker and argue.
We can all argue as to whether Labour’s crisis is due to Corbyn or the PLP or Blair or David Miliband’s banana; but the fundamental cause of all this is that we have been unable to achieve diversity of opinion in a mature and democratic method under FPTP.
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| Sure, blame the banana! |
The answer? It really is quite simple. In order to achieve a left wing government in 2020 and to achieve meaningful electoral reform can only be done through an election pact between Labour, the Liberal Democrats, the Greens, the SNP and Plaid Cymru. The Centre left of UK politics must stand on a platform of electoral and constitutional reform.
It makes sense on both issues of ideology and on electoral maths. The conservative majority is razor thin: just 1270 votes would be needed to overturn a conservative majority. Imagine how easy that would be if we could just swallow our pride for just one election cycle.
That pride includes all wings of the Labour Party too. If we can all finally agree that the enemy is the conservative party and not each other, then the centre-left can and will be triumphant in 2020. If we cannot do that then the cause of progressives will be lost forever.
